Works · Framework Demo

CoCHI · Why Are LLMs Confidently Wrong?

LLMs often assign high confidence to wrong answers, and most calibration methods only adjust output probabilities. Class-oriented Causal Head Intervention (CoCHI) looks inside the model instead: it links attention heads to patterns of correctness and confidence, then gates the heads behind overconfident errors while preserving correct predictions.

Correcting Overconfident Errors via Causal Head Intervention
Jing Ren†, Bowen Li†, Ziqi Xu*, Xuechao Yang, Feng Xia · † Equal contribution · * Corresponding author

NeurIPS 2026 ↗ OpenReview ↗ GitHub ↗ 3 LLM families · 5 multiple-choice QA benchmarks ECE · NLL · Brier Score

How it works

Four steps, one frozen model

01

Decompose

Predictions on a small calibration set are partitioned by correctness and confidence to isolate overconfident errors.

02

Attribute

Head gates are optimized on each class to identify facilitating and non-facilitating heads.

03

Construct

Error and noise heads form a mask, correct-high facilitators are protected, and the top-k heads are selected.

04

Intervene

Selected head outputs are gated at inference, while the remaining computation and model weights stay unchanged.

Worked example

Four confidence classes, one head mask

Illustrative questions, scores, and head layout — not a live model call, and not results from the paper. CoCHI is evaluated on multiple-choice QA; open-ended generation and multi-turn interaction remain future work. Classes are defined on labeled calibration data, not by access to test-time correctness. The paper's reported results are in the next section.

Question
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—
Confidence before intervention—
Confidence after intervention—
Threshold marker at τ = 0.5 — splits high and low confidence

Head mask — fixed for the model, applied to every input
Gated Protected Unchanged
Calibration class
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—

Reported results

3 models, 5 benchmarks

Results from Tables 1 and 6 of the paper ↗, as published on the project page ↗. CoCHI selects 10 heads for LLaMA and 8 for Gemma and Mistral.

Model and benchmark pairs where CoCHI has the best mean of the 5 methods, counted from the table below.

Method Accuracy ↑ ECE ↓ NLL ↓ Brier Score ↓

Mean ± standard deviation. ↑ higher is better, ↓ lower is better. Gold bold marks the best mean in each column. TS: Temperature Scaling. ITI: Inference-Time Intervention. ATS: Adaptive Temperature Scaling.